[01] Abtin Ataei, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. [02] Jun-Ki Choi, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Dayton, Dayton, Ohio, USA. [03] Sara Shamshiri, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. [04] Hossein Torabi, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. [05] Mojtaba Nedaei, Department of Energy Engineering, Graduate School of the Environment and Energy, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

This paper evaluates the existing energy consumption of Iranian utility network in order to forecast the energy demand of the next 15 years. The primary energy and final energy demand in 2030 were simulated using the LEAP model based on the different viewpoints of economic development, energy efficiency and energy structure. This study considers three types of economic development scenarios including; baseline scenario (scenario A), rapidly changing development pattern scenario (scenario B) and risk scenario (scenario C). Moreover, two non-fossil energy capacity schemes were considered. Results indicated that the total energy consumption of Iran could be reached to 13000 Million Gigajoules in 2030. It became clear that the share of petroleum (and other petroleum products) in the consumption of energy would be decreased, while the natural gas and non-fossil energy sources would be increased. It was concluded that based on the scenario A, from 2010 to 2030, the emission of GHGs will increase from 113.4 to 176.3 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent. However, through optimizing the energy consumption structure, increasing the energy saving and emission reduction efforts, the emissions in 2020 will only increase to 106.1 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent.

Energy Consumption, LEAP Model, Energy Demand, Energy Optimization

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